Opinion & Analysis

'Strong horse' McCain saddled and ready for US race

Clinton and Obama each have the same massive Achilles' heel - they want the US to withdraw from Iraq, writes Tony Allwright

NOT EVERYTHING the late Osama bin Laden said was wicked; it was sometimes wise. For example, in December 2001 he observed that "when people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse".

It's true: everyone wants to back a winner. The US presidential shenanigans can be a reminder of this universal truth, as they transfix and fascinate not just Americans, but the rest of the world as well.

For the first time in two generations, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a pre-ordained candidate, and this has provided an object lesson in open, competitive democracy. (Compare with Russia's presidential "election".)

No other candidate for any governing position anywhere in the world is subject to such rigorous, merciless public examination and attack as the would-be nominees have been undergoing. Regardless of what you think of their politics or personalities, you have to be filled with admiration at the sheer doggedness and toughness under fire of each one of them.

John McCain's campaign is developing particularly well for him. He has secured the Republicans' nomination with a string of decisive victories in primaries and caucuses, which means that the many anti-McCain Republicans, who hate him for some of his slightly leftish ideas (soft on illegal immigrants, pro-Kyoto, critical of big business, iffy on tax-cuts), now have no one else to support. At least they all love his conservative positions on defence and finance.

Moreover, now that he's the indisputable "strong horse", it's much easier for sceptical Republicans to stifle their moans.

By late February, March, Barack Obama looked like the Democrats' "strong horse". So much so that there were nearly daily defections of delegates, legislators, and politicos from Hillary to Obama, stampeding to be well clear of Clinton's perceived "weak horse".

But that turned out to be premature. For Obama failed to deliver the expected knockout blow at the Texas and Ohio primaries, which means the nomination battle may well carry on until June, and the party will therefore remain divided. Even then, victory is expected to come by a close margin, so the differential equine strength will probably not arouse much passion.

Not that he needs that much. For Barack and Hillary each have the same massive Achilles' heel. Iraq. Each wants to extricate America from Iraq as quickly as possible, while trying to make it look like they are not cutting and running. A year ago when they started campaigning, this was a rather popular position, and arguably it had some merit, in that the only progress that seemed under way in Iraq was of the negative variety, with suicide-homicide atrocities, American casualties and fervid insurgency at every turn, every day. It might not have been honourable to withdraw, but you can understand that people at a certain moment might say enough is enough, I want out of here.

But that's all changed thanks to the brilliance of Gen David Petraeus. Against all expectations, his "surge" has resulted in a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of the US military, and more importantly, of ordinary Iraqis. Thousands of once-disgruntled Sunnis have turned against al-Qaeda, ceased most resistance, and begun  flocking to government security forces and begging the Americans to stop both al-Qaeda and Shia militias.

With tribal sheikhs driving the so-called "Anbar Awakening", Iraqis are volunteering information about terrorists and mines, and clamouring to sign up with the joint security force. In short, al-Qaeda is being comprehensively defeated, driven out of its strongholds, and at the same time, exposed not as religious zealots but more like criminal thugs, bent on extortion, gasoline and food racketeering, petty theft, pornography, barbarity, murder. All this is providing space for Americans to rebuild government facilities, arbitrate tribal feuds, repair utilities, train Iraqi army and police personnel, and generally improve life on the ground.

This may not be victory (yet), but it certainly isn't defeat. And there is now no doubt about who is the "strong horse" (the Iraqi and American security forces) and who the "weak" (al-Qaeda). That in itself must be helping to influence Iraqis of all clans and religious persuasions to support the emergent new Iraq over the criminal thugs.

Meanwhile, back in America, the very absence of Iraq from the front pages bears witness to its successes there. The longer this progress continues, the more inescapable will it become, and the more inexcusable will become the retreatism of the two Democratic candidates. If America is seen as the "strong horse" in Iraq, the American people will want to back anyone who supports it. So unless Hillary or Barack make a humiliating U-turn on Iraq, they will undoubtedly become, in the eyes of US voters, the "weak horse" to be crushed by "strong horse" McCain.

No wonder he is beaming.

If only bin Laden had stuck to philosophising, he could have made himself a fortune on the lecture and after-dinner circuit.

Madam, - Tony Allwright (Opinion March 27th) lauds the "dramatic turnaround" in Iraq wrought by General Petraeus's "surge": a pacified Shia, al-Qaeda on the run, and grateful Sunni "begging" for US military protection. One does not have to look far, however, to dispel such a bizarre fantasy, as just a few pages earlier, sober reports bring us news of recalcitrant Badrists and mortars pummelling the Green Zone.

In several ways, Mr Allwright distorts the "successes" that he cites. The military surge has indeed brought a welcome level of comfort to Iraqi civilians, but its stated objective was to provide much-needed space for political reconciliation. As Gen Petraeus has recently admitted, and as Michael Jansen reports (March 27th), this simply has not happened.

Moreover, the five extra combat brigades deployed to Iraq with the surge each have 15-month tours of duty, which expire in July. When they depart, the US army and marines have no combat brigades ready to replace them. Any security gains brought by the surge can, in the absence of any real political progress, be expected to be reversed when the surge ends.

The Sunni "Awakening" that Mr Allwright touts as proof of progress has frayed significantly. Those who accepted American money in return for battling fanatical Islamists are now complaining about not being paid. Several militias have, improbably, gone on strike, and have refused to man checkpoints. The majority of Sunni are also bitter about the refusal of the Shia government to make any real political concessions - a refusal that portends likely violence ahead.

Finally, Mr Allwright neglects entirely to mention the most important reason for Iraq's stabilisation: the ceasefire declared by Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. Yet, as your paper reports, Shia militias have resumed attacks in the south of the country, signalling that either al-Sadr is backing away from the truce, or that restive elements within his militia are unhappy with the current situation. Whichever it may be, Sunni militia are unlikely to remain passive in the face of any resumption of Shia violence.

Mr Allwright, therefore, has no warrant to declare Iraq an "Achilles Heel" for each of the Democratic contenders. His rosy view of the current scenario, shared with Senator McCain, has about as much credibility as President Bush's repeated claims of "victory". American policy in Iraq should be based, first and foremost, on a realistic appraisal of the facts. At least, with a Democrat in the White House, we could count on this much. - Yours, etc,
SEÁN COLEMAN,
Clondalkin,
Dublin 22.

Madam, - How can Tony Allwright even begin to talk about "victory" in Iraq as the bodies of entire families lie beneath the rubble in Baghdad and elsewhere? What sort of "victory" does he envisage? The only winners will be the business community who will get to rebuild the country the US and its allies destroyed in the first place.

Madam, - Many words could be written about the disproportionate coverage given in The Irish Timesto the Iraq war apologists, such as Charles Krauthammer, Christopher Hitchens and most recently Tony Allwright (Opinion, March 27th).

Hopefully, the following will summarise a differing view in much less column space:

1. What matters most is not what the above write, but what they omit to write. They try to avoid numbers, which carry too much truth. Tony Allwright's article contains not a single statistic - no mention of the minimum 100,000 Iraqi civilian deaths resulting from the Bush-Cheney-Blair invasion, or the recent estimate by Joseph Stiglitz that the total cost of this misadventure to future US taxpayers will be $3 trillion.

2. The current common theme of the Iraq apologists is the "success" of the "surge strategy" of the "brilliant" Gen Petraeus.

So civilian deaths are now running at an annual rate of 10-20,000, instead of the 30,000 in 2007. These figures are still horrendous. The "Anbar Awakening" is firstly dependent on US money, and secondly creates future challenges to central government.

It is ironic that Mr Allwright's article came exactly one day after Prof Anatol Lieven's article (Opinion, March 26th) effectively demolished McCain's foreign policy, including on Iraq.

America will fail to deliver democracy in Iraq because the criteria required for democracy do not exist there.

However there is one small piece of good news: in spite of the print space given to the Iraq apologists, they are not winning the argument, as exemplified by a poll reported a few days ago which showed 82 per cent of respondents feeling that the Iraq war was a mistake. Only a small gullible minority are fooled by neo-cons such as Krauthammer and Allwright.

- Yours, etc,

Gift Idea
Cuddly Teddy Bears
looking for a home

Good to report that as at
14th September 2009
he is at least alive.

BLOGROLL

Adam Smith  

Alt Tag  

Andrew Sullivan

Atlantic Blog (defunct)

Back Seat Drivers

Belfast Gonzo

Black Line  

Blog-Irish (defunct)

Broom of Anger 

Charles Krauthammer

Cox and Forkum

Defiant  Irishwoman  

Disillusioned Lefty

Douglas Murray

Freedom Institute  

Gavin's Blog 

Guido Fawkes

Instapundit

Internet Commentator

Irish Blogs

Irish Eagle

Irish Elk

Jawa Report

Kevin Myers

Mark Humphrys 

Mark Steyn

Melanie Phillips

Not a Fish

Parnell's Ireland

Rolfe's Random Review

Samizdata 

Sarah Carey / GUBU

Sicilian Notes  

Slugger O'Toole

Thinking Man's Guide

Turbulence Ahead

Victor Davis Hanson

Watching Israel

Wulfbeorn, Watching

Jihad

Terrorism
Awareness Project

Religion

Iona Institute
Skeptical Bible  

Skeptical Quran  

Leisure

Razzamatazz Blog  

Sawyer the Lawyer

Tales from Warri

Twenty Major

Graham's  Sporting Wk

Blog Directory

Eatonweb

Discover the World

My Columns in the

 What I've recently
been reading

“The Lemon Tree”, by Sandy Tol (2006),
is a delightful novel-style history of modern Israel and Palestine told through the eyes of a thoughtful protagonist from either side, with a household lemon tree as their unifying theme.

But it's not entirely honest in its subtle pro-Palestinian bias, and therefore needs to be read in conjunction with an antidote, such as

See detailed review

+++++

This examines events which led to BP's 2010 Macondo blowout in the Gulf of Mexico. 

BP's ambitious CEO John Browne expanded it through adventurous acquisitions, aggressive offshore exploration, and relentless cost-reduction that trumped everything else, even safety and long-term technical sustainability.  

Thus mistakes accumulated, leading to terrifying and deadly accidents in refineries, pipelines and offshore operations, and business disaster in Russia.  

The Macondo blowout was but an inevitable outcome of a BP culture that had become poisonous and incompetent. 

However the book is gravely compromised by a litany of over 40 technical and stupid errors that display the author's ignorance and carelessness. 

It would be better to wait for the second (properly edited) edition before buying. 

As for BP, only a wholesale rebuilding of a new, professional, ethical culture will prevent further such tragedies and the eventual destruction of a once mighty corporation with a long and generally honourable history.

Note: I wrote my own reports on Macondo
in May, June, and July 2010

+++++

A horrific account of:

More details on my blog here.

+++++

This is nonagenarian Alistair Urquhart’s incredible story of survival in the Far East during World War II.

After recounting a childhood of convention and simple pleasures in working-class Aberdeen, Mr Urquhart is conscripted within days of Chamberlain declaring war on Germany in 1939.

From then until the Japanese are deservedly nuked into surrendering six years later, Mr Urquhart’s tale is one of first discomfort but then following the fall of Singapore of ever-increasing, unmitigated horror. 

After a wretched journey Eastward, he finds himself part of Singapore’s big but useless garrison.

Taken prisoner when Singapore falls in 1941, he is, successively,

Chronically ill, distraught and traumatised on return to Aberdeen yet disdained by the British Army, he slowly reconstructs a life.  Only in his late 80s is he able finally to recount his dreadful experiences in this unputdownable book.

There are very few first-person eye-witness accounts of the the horrors of Japanese brutality during WW2. As such this book is an invaluable historical document.

+++++

“Culture of Corruption: Obama and His Team of Tax Cheats, Crooks, and Cronies”

This is a rattling good tale of the web of corruption within which the American president and his cronies operate. It's written by blogger Michele Malkin who, because she's both a woman and half-Asian, is curiously immune to the charges of racism and sexism this book would provoke if written by a typical Republican WASP.

With 75 page of notes to back up - in best blogger tradition - every shocking and in most cases money-grubbing allegation, she excoriates one Obama crony after another, starting with the incumbent himself and his equally tricky wife. 

Joe Biden, Rahm Emmanuel, Valerie Jarett, Tim Geithner, Lawrence Summers, Steven Rattner, both Clintons, Chris Dodd: they all star as crooks in this venomous but credible book. 

ACORN, Mr Obama's favourite community organising outfit, is also exposed for the crooked vote-rigging machine it is.

+++++

This much trumpeted sequel to Freakonomics is a bit of disappointment. 

It is really just a collation of amusing little tales about surprising human (and occasionally animal) behaviour and situations.  For example:

The book has no real message other than don't be surprised how humans sometimes behave and try to look for simple rather than complex solutions.

And with a final anecdote (monkeys, cash and sex), the book suddenly just stops dead in its tracks.  Weird.

++++++

A remarkable, coherent attempt by Financial Times economist Alan Beattie to understand and explain world history through the prism of economics. 

It's chapters are organised around provocative questions such as

It's central thesis is that economic development continues to be impeded in different countries for different historical reasons, even when the original rationale for those impediments no longer obtains.  For instance:

The author writes in a very chatty, light-hearted matter which makes the book easy to digest. 

However it would benefit from a few charts to illustrate some of the many quantitative points put forward, as well as sub-chaptering every few pages to provide natural break-points for the reader. 

+++++

This is a thrilling book of derring-do behind enemy lines in the jungles of north-east Burma in 1942-44 during the Japanese occupation.

The author was a member of Britain's V Force, a forerunner of the SAS. Its remit was to harass Japanese lines of command, patrol their occupied territory, carryout sabotage and provide intelligence, with the overall objective of keeping the enemy out of India.   

Irwin is admirably yet brutally frank, in his descriptions of deathly battles with the Japs, his execution of a prisoner, dodging falling bags of rice dropped by the RAF, or collapsing in floods of tears through accumulated stress, fear and loneliness. 

He also provides some fascinating insights into the mentality of Japanese soldiery and why it failed against the flexibility and devolved authority of the British. 

The book amounts to a  very human and exhilarating tale.

Oh, and Irwin describes the death in 1943 of his colleague my uncle, Major PF Brennan.

+++++

 
Click on the logo
to get a table with
the Rugby World Cup
scores, points and rankings.

After 48 crackling, compelling, captivating games, the new World Champions are, deservedly,
SOUTH AFRICA

England get the Silver,
Argentina the Bronze.  Fourth is host nation France.

No-one can argue with
the justice of the outcomes