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Cyprus Gas Is All Gas - 23rd March 2013 Don't believe what you hear about a gas bonanza Cyprus is in economic turmoil, short of a mere €16 billion, 65% of its annual GDP. The EU has promised to lend it €10 bn but only on condition it raises the other €6 bn in cash from its own resources. Seemingly it has nowhere to turn for instant cash but to raid Cyprus bank accounts to confiscate both the life savings of innocent citizens and the supposedly ill gotten-gains of Russian multi-millionaire oligarchs. This will of course - if it has not already done so - ruin the reputation of Cyprus as a centre for international financial services and sound banking, if not a sunny haven for shady money. So a major source of future revenue has instantly dried up, leaving tourism as the only export market. But there is a small glimmer of hope whereby the confiscation may not have to be as draconian (up to 10% of deposits) as feared. For Cyprus apparently has a big, offshore gas field waiting to be developed, and plenty more in the offing, with hundreds of billions of €uro waiting to be reaped. Securities on this could be sold for cash, in return for a slice of the lucrative future revenues. Russia's giant, state-owned Gazprom, the biggest gas company in the world, is being mooted as one potential investor. This gas securitisation idea is being heavily hyped, and I have not come across a single dissenting voice. Personally I had never heard of Cyprus's gas bonanza before, which made me suspicious and prompted me to have a closer look. As a result, I am therefore now a single dissenting voice. Here's why. The Cypriots tell us that they have excellent offshore gas reserves: 7 TCF so far, equivalent to two million barrels of oil, with an upside potential of 60 TCF. (TCF stands for trillion cubic feet.) The only field identified so far is called Aphrodite, after the Greek goddess of love, beauty, pleasure, and procreation; obviously the Cypriots are hoping a bit of that action will emanate from beneath the waves. The subsea Aphrodite is seen as a multi-billion €uro windfall that, simply by selling future production, will become some kind of saviour. This is foolish. Not only are there political difficulties (powerful Turkey disputes Cyprus's sovereignty over the offshore area in question and has already sent a gunboat), but the technical difficulties and the cost of bringing to market gas that is 200 hundred kilometres offshore in 1,700 metres of water depth are immense. Such a project,
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would easily stretch to ten years and maybe €5 billion paid upfront before a penny of revenue. The map below shows the route of the 1,800 km Trans-Med pipeline that the Cyprus Government is suggesting (anything to avoid Turkey).
However the whole concept is a mirage anyway.
7 TCF would be an immense gas field.
By comparison, Ireland has one great field, Kinsale, with 1½ TCF that has been producing for 30 years, and another, Corrib, with 1 TCF which will have cost €2½ billion and twelve years to develop by the time gas first appears in 2015.
In the 1990s, the company I then headed discovered the Philippines' biggest hydrocarbon field, Malampaya, which lies offshore the sparsely populated island of Palawan in 846 metres of water. It is 530 km from the nearest viable market being the island of Luzon where Manila is located (click to enlarge the chart). When discovered, the reserves were estimated by my team to be 1.1 TCF of gas (since upgraded to 2.7 TCF), and development entailed a record-breaking 24” subsea pipeline to Luzon along a seabed fraught with faults and instabilities. Malampaya took nine years to appraise and develop, at a cost of $4½ billion (€4 bn).
I mention Kinsale, Corrib and Malampaya to put Cyprus's Aphrodite in some perspective.
Backing up the declaration of Aphrodite as a “discovery”, are seismic surveys and just a single exploration well. It is designated “A-1 Discovery” on this chart, which was published on 6th December 2012 by Noble Energy, the American oil and gas company which made the discovery.
Note also the words “DST Pending”. DST stands for Drill Stem Test, which is a rather rudimentary method for testing the rate at which the well will produce oil and/or gas and/or water, in actual practice as distinct from theory. In other words Noble are bragging about “5-8 TCF” based on just that one well that they haven't even tested. Nevertheless this seems to be the grounds on which they and the Cyprus Government tout about reserves of seven TCF and even, taking into account similar structures in the area, a possible/probably sixty.
This is fanciful talk in the extreme.
When perhaps a dozen wells have been drilled (at a typical cost of €40 million each), or perhaps even the four more that the chart indicates are planned, it will be time to take seriously claims of 7 TCF.
Until then, chatter about Cyprus gas is nothing but gas, combined with wishful thinking. Don't put your money there. Serious investors are certainly not going provide cash against the long, vague shot of production revenues perhaps a decade hence.
Other than raiding bank deposits, there is no quick fix that is going to produce €6 bn for the hapless Cypriots.
Therefore, if it fails to do so, either it goes bankrupt and tumbles out of the €uro and back to a worthless Cypriot Pound.
Or the EU blinks first and ponys up the extra €6bn in order to save the (nevertheless doomed) €uro for a little longer.
This is the outcome I would bet on.
The EU Common Agricultural Policy rewards farmers for no discernible reason
On 19th March I was invited to become part of the audience for the Prime Time TV programme that Ireland's state broadcaster RTE puts out twice a week. This was to partake in a discussion about the EU's most expensive, longest running subsidy, the Common Agricultural Policy, CAP, to which I have long been viscerally opposed, as the programme makers know.
You can view my contribution here, where it appears in minute 5 of the second item, titled “Farm subsidy questioned”.
This is essentially what I said (with links to my sources):
The CAP is abomination which
extorts massive sums from 95% of EU citizens, | |
which it then throws at the 5% who farm things, | |
but for a cost that is three times what customers want to pay. |
That’s why
subsidies
account for
over 70% of Irish farm income | |||
(amounting to nearly two billion €uro per year | |||
out of the total EU CAP budget of €52 bn), |
which is why the CAP eats 38% of the EU budget, and
why the CAP adds €500 to the annual food bill of every home.
And that’s not to talk of the Third World livelihoods that the CAP destroys due to
the subsidised dumping of surplus EU (and also US) agricultural products | |
and the protectionist barriers restricting entry of their cheaper food into the EU. |
The sooner the CAP is abolished the better, with part of the huge sums saved redeployed to retrain farmers to learn new, marketable skills that customers actually value.
There is no shortage of food in the world for those able to pay for it, which certainly includes the countries of the European Union.
No-one really challenged what I said. The farmers were too busy squabbling among themselves about how to divvy out the CAP spoils.
That tends to make another point. The prime crop in EU farming today is not farm produce but farm subsidies - how to maximise them and get the biggest share, which is always the case when big money is being given away. Subsidies are like narcotics - destructive and degrading in equal manner; recipients quickly become junkies who lose their sense of pride and those who distribute them the drug dealers.
Even in this lively TV discussion about farming, so pervasive was the narcotic that not a single person talked about actual farming, only the subsidies.
Imagine if that energy went into actual, you know, farming.
Quote (19th March): “OK, so props don't ever join the referee ranks because it's a lot of running. But would it be so harmful to perhaps get a prop on the pitch to officiate at scrum-time only? He could then leave the field until the next scrum. He wouldn't have to run anywhere, he'd get free pies on the touchline, and we'd have a scrum official who'd really know what was going on.”
A commentator's suggestion at the recent
Wales/England 6-Nations championship decider
(won 30-3 by Wales), which was heavily punctuated by inscrutable penalties
at scrum time.
The problem is that rugby referees are never props (who hate running)
and therefore never understand the mysterious, nefarious machinations
grinding within the dark recesses of a heaving, wheezing, sweat-laden scrum.
Hat-tip: Graham Hunt in Perth, Oz
Quote (19th March): “Sure what could go wrong? It is the day after St Patrick’s Day, a roomful of Paddies, a free bar and the future king of England. It’s going to be messy.”
Comedian Patrick Nulty at a €1,000-per-plate
testimonial dinner
in London for Irish rugby star Brian O'Driscoll,
attended by, inter alia, the Duke of Cambridge
From compassion to blood sacrifice
George Orwell, in “Nineteen Eighty-Four”, his seminal though subtle diatribe against global tyranny, introduced the world to many new words that have since entered the English language: Big Brother, thoughtcrime, newspeak, memory hole, duckspeak, unperson ... doublethink.
He defines doublethink as, among other things,
“the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them”.
He even has a shorthand word for this - blackwhite, denying the evidence of your eyes by declaring and believing that black is white or vice versa.
I wonder how many other Western countries are as conflicted about suicide as Ireland, which seems to have developed not Orwell's doublethink but its own treblethink on this troubling subject.
Judging by Irish media over the past few weeks and months, huge numbers of Irish, in full sanctimonious flow, seem to believe that death by suicide is, simultaneously,
a terrible thing that must be prevented by all means,
a wonderful thing that must be accommodated by all means,
a dreadful worry that can be alleviated only by blood sacrifice.
Examples:
1 A Terrible Thing
It is a terrible thing to lose a loved one who has died at his/her own hand.
Yet death by suicide in Ireland has become so prevalent that Ireland's main opposition party, Fianna Fail, is proposing a new 7½% tax be levied on alcohol sales (excluding pubs and restaurants) in order to fund €86 million worth of suicide prevention services. Its report, “Actions Speak Louder than Words: A Structural Approach to a Societal Issue”, advises that Irish suicides have increased by 30% over the past decade, a huge heartbreaking tragedy that took 525 lives in 2011, most of them young males.
This death toll is almost thrice that of the roads (186), another major killer of predominantly young males, but one that receives far more attention and funding than suicide, and has positive results to show for it in terms of reducing the deaths. Fianna Fail's attempt to tackle suicide is an honourable one which if adopted will undoubtedly likewise make a real difference.
Those considering suicide do indeed need to be identified, helped, counselled to support them in dealing with these self-destructive thoughts. Prisoners who present a self-harm risk are routinely put on suicide watch, which includes regularly checking of their cells as well as removing all items that might be used to cut, strangle or poison.
Suicide is permanent, life's problems are temporal. No effort is too great to save such people from needlessly extinguishing their most valuable attribute - their lives - when actual solutions can be developed.
2 A Wonderful Thing
We have probably all imagined ourselves in some dreadful situation where we might long for the sweet release of death.
Locked-in Syndrome holds particular terror - who can forget “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” by French journalist Jean-Dominique Bauby who ended up this way after a stroke in 1995. Though fully cosmos mentis with all his senses intact, he awoke unable to move his body apart from his left eyelid, which he used, one blink at a time, for rudimentary communication to laboriously write his book, letter by letter. Had he wanted to commit suicide, he would of course have been unable to do so, other than to request someone else to end his life.
But that someone else would then have been prosecuted for unlawful killing or worse, for while the law permits suicide, helping someone to commit suicide is illegal.
For Irishwoman Marie Fleming and many others in her sad situation, it's not locked-in syndrome but terminal multiple sclerosis which since 1986 has been slowly paralysing her bodily functions and will eventually suffocate her. So she would like to be the mistress of her own destiny and die at a time of her choosing, before her suffering and fear become unbearable. But though in full possession of her mental capacities, she is already confined to a wheelchair and so to kill herself would need someone to set a system up, such as a poisonous drink. Once again, that person - in this case her loving partner - would be liable for prosecution.
There is much sympathy for her predicament, for who would not want to help a suffering yet coherent relative who desperately wanted to go to a better place. But the ban on assisted suicide is there for a reason - to affirm the sanctity of human life but also to avoid creating situations where vulnerable people feel obliged (or maybe are encouraged) to have themselves killed, perhaps to relieve kinfolk of a burden or to release a legacy.
Marie Fleming and many like her would consider it a wonderful thing to be allowed to commit suicide, with help if necessary, as a way to conclude her journey on this earth in a dignified and gentle manner. And public opinion is firmly with them.
But though the law is not with them, judges are hinting to public prosecutors that they should use discretion in bringing prosecutions in such cases; ie don't.
3 Dreadful Worry
The third angle to suicide relates to unwanted pregnancies. In most of the western world, abortion is available more or less on demand, despite the fact that it is usually against the law.
For example in England, abortion up to 28 weeks was legalised in The Abortion Act of 1967, even though the 1861 Offences Against the Person Act remained in place, rendering abortion illegal under pain of life imprisonment.
The two Acts were reconciled by saying that abortion is permissible only if the life or health of the mother is at risk, including the risk of suicide.
The suicide provision has been the single biggest factor that has led to abortion-on-demand even up to birth itself - currently 200,000 abortions a year in England and Wales being 20% of all pregnancies. Lord David Steel, the author of the 1967 Act, is today horrified at the floodgates he never realised he was opening and urges Ireland not to follow his much regretted example.
Though no-one can objectively prove that someone will commit suicide, it is sufficient in UK law for two psychiatrists to vouch that without abortion a woman is suicidal. This is a massive loophole, as all it takes is to find a group of pro-abortion psychiatrists to sign the paperwork and the path is clear.
Indeed, there is no scientific or empirical evidence that abortion prevents suicide. For example, a recent review of all maternal deaths in Ireland's main maternity hospitals from 1950 to 2011 has found not a single case of a woman taking her own life because she was pregnant.
Nevertheless, advocates for abortion argue that it is a great mercy for a woman to be allowed to abort her baby if it means she avoids suicide brought on by dreadful worry over her unwanted pregnancy. Such people, however, never argue that suicidal tendencies should be given the same help, counselling and if necessary suicide-watch that is accepted practice for others - even lowly imprisoned criminals - who seem at risk of self-destruction.
Only for pregnant women is suicide to be averted through infant blood sacrifice.
In Ireland where the 1861 Act also remains in force (as a relic of British rule), there is a huge push to legalise abortion in case of threat of suicide, as in England.
But other than concern over the mother's possible suicide, is there an unthinkable alternative reason for this drive? Surely it cannot be that risk of suicide is merely a Trojan horse designed to introduce a regime of abortion-on-demand? Even though this is precisely what has ensued in England and all other abortion-friendly jurisdictions where grounds for abortion include suicide, or even mental health.
Treblethink
So there you have it. Thousands of otherwise rational, well-meaning people indulge in suicide treblethink -
“the power of holding three contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting all three of them”.
The Good, The Bad and the Ugly Excuse.
What would George Orwell have written? Would treblethink have entered his vocabulary?
Paddy Jack, in Dublin's Temple Bar
Farmers' Market,
where he serves horse steak sandwiches in Ireland's only horse meat outlet.
He his referring to Do
or Die, his pet racehorse
who is being trained to compete.
But if on the racecourse
Do or Die fails to Do the business he will Die
- and be served up on Mr Jack's stall.
Though for sentimental reasons not to Mr Jack himself.
Quote (12th Feb): “Nothing I’m proposing tonight should increase our deficit by a single dime.”
President Obama explains in his 2013 State
of the Union address
that his proposed litany of more spending, new programs and new
bureaucracies
will not increase America's $16½ trillion deficit
“by a single dime”!
Yes, really!
The odd one out is of course the one in the red hat and the dress, that is to say the lady.
Because she is the oldest of the four.
She is also the only one who in recent months has not decided to voluntarily resign ahead of time in favour of a successor.
The reason is obvious. She still does not trust her heir, a spring chicken of a mere 64, to take over her job and execute her/his duties effectively. So unlike the other three, she is sticking to her original vow, to serve until death, or in the case of Archbishop Williams until statutory retirement age.
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Dutch MEP Peter van Dalen,
in response to the reported persecution of
a hundred 100 million Christians around the world,
demands that Ireland as current EU “president”,
take concrete action.
Ireland's response? Waffle, of course
World Will Frac - 6th February 2013
A technological
revolution in hydraulic fracturing (“fraccing”)
of hydrocarbon-bearing shales
is leading to an unstoppable energy revolution, which will in turn
lead to entirely benign revolutions in global economics and geopolitics
A year ago, I wrote in some detail a post called “Truth About Fraccing” (http://tiny.cc/fraccing) which
takes away much of the mystery surrounding this essentially simple but not widely understood technique to squeeze more hydrocarbons out of the ground, and | |
demonstrates that the main objections are mainly bogus. |
Just to recap, fraccing (hydraulic fracturing) entails pumping water down a well and into reservoir rock that contains hydrocarbons (gas and/or oil) at such a high pressure that the rock splits open. This exposes much more of the rock to the wellbore and thus makes it easier for the hydrocarbons to flow into it and up to the surface.
This post explores what fraccing is going to mean for the world at large - how it will affect in an almost wholly benign fashion both global economics and geopolitics.
Just as fraccing is unleashing undreamed-of volumes of hydrocarbons, so the consistently high oil price in recent years, firmly in the hundred-dollar-a-barrel category, is unleashing undreamed-of fraccing technology. (Click on the interesting oil-price chart below for better detail.)
This unleashed technology has three legs that together are yielding results that are truly startling:
Seismic surveys are the means by which subterranean rock shapes and make-up are detected, thereby pinning down where potential hydrocarbon accumulations might lie. Recent advances have enabled ever more obscure or small accumulations to be identified. | |
Drilling wells is the means why which these accumulations of hydrocarbons are connected to the surface. It too has benefited from ever more sophisticated techniques, from the major (drilling holes that are directional, horizontal, multilateral) to the less glamorous such as improved drilling fluids, measurement techniques, drilling bits, operating practices. | |
Fraccing itself is the process by which the hydrocarbons can be better liberated from the accumulations into the wellbore, particularly when the reservoir rock that holds them is low in both porosity and permeability. Fraccing methods have improved enormously in recent years, resulting in the production - and potential production - of vast additional volumes that previously were thought impossible to bring to surface. |
Then there is increasing unease, if not panic, in the West at how
1 its consumption has steadily exceeded its ability to find new hydrocarbons, allied with ...
2 the extent to which it has therefore become increasingly dependent on foreign sources for its insatiable thirst for oil and gas, sources which are largely hostile to the interests of the West, which is in effect nevertheless funding them.
This chart of America's trillion-dollar dependency illustrates the point; it is typical of the West in general.
These three elements - oil price, technological advances and foreign dependency - are the factors that have led to a fraccing boom, currently evident only in a few parts of the US, but one that is going to sweep the world.
That is because fraccing is, simply, making available huge quantities of hydrocarbons within the Western countries themselves, changing the energy picture dramatically.
This tabulation, which appeared in World Oil magazine last August, uses data published by the Energy Information Administration, a US Federal body which collates and analysises energy information.
It shows for a large array of countries the estimated reserves of gas recoverable mainly through fraccing, which add up to 6,622 trillion cubic feet (TCF), a truly astounding figure. One TCF is the equivalent in energy terms of about 170 million barrels of oil; thus 6,622 TCF equates to over a trillion barrels, worth some $100 trillion at today's prices.
These numbers need to be put into context.
First Oil:
BP tells us that the world's oil reserves are currently 1,653 billion barrels, which is sufficient to keep us going for another 54 years.
However, of this 1,196 bn bbl lie beneath the countries of OPEC, while 859 of them ( 52%) are in the Middle East and North Africa, which I will refer to as MENAf. (OPEC's oil income in 2012 alone was a very juicy trillion dollars.)
Then Gas:
The world's gas reserves amount to 7,361 TCF (BP's figure again), which is 64 years' worth.
Of this, 3,156 TCF, or 42%, are within MENAf
Oil Plus Gas:
Combined into barrels-of-oil-equivalent (BOE), global reserves are therefore 2.9 trillion BOE, good for half a century or so, of which roughly half comes from MENAf.
MENAf is of course the location of oil-rich states such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Libya, which have been
fomenting Islamic hostility against the West for decades, | |
lavishly funding hate-filled mosques and madrassas that preach rabid anti-infidelism and anti-Semitism to adults and children alike, | |
undermining Western democracies, | |
sponsoring Jihadist terrorism and terrorists everywhere. |
They seek overtly or covertly the conversion of the infidel world to an Islamic caliphate, under the Koranic injunction to convert, enslave or kill (eg 9:5).
MENAf countries can behave this way because they are so wealthy, thanks to the West's inability to keep up with its thirst for hydrocarbons. Thus the West is funding its own enemies, and by the way providing most of the technology and expertise to extract the MENAf's oil and gas.
Thus the trillion BOE that the EIA estimate is yet to be liberated (through fraccing) from shale gas reserves represents an addition of some 38% to global reserves.
That is a massive increase by any reckoning, but its impact is even greater because scan the tabulation above and you can see that huge volumes are going to come from consuming countries themselves in Europe, N America and elsewhere.
But that is not still not the full story.
This EIA chart shows in dark red where the expected shale gas reserves are to be found. Just as interesting, however, are the areas that are left out of the reckoning. These are principally the already hydrocarbon-prolific regions of Russia, the Middle East, Malaysia, Indonesia, not to mention the world's entire offshore acreage. Oh, and the OIL that fraccing will liberate from shales is not mentioned at all.
So even if the EIA's estimates of shale gas are wrong by factors, it still looks inevitable that the global stock of oil and gas is set to increase dramatically.
But what exactly does this mean?
Firstly, the volumes to be released through fraccing - and therefore the associated revenues - are so vast that fraccing itself will become an inexorable force. Frankly, money talks, and no amount of lobbying, bogus scare-tactics or political sanctimony is going to stop the fraccing.
In due course, the fraccing issue will morph into how to set standards and rigorously enforce them, a far more constructive (and indeed necessary) approach than blindly banning the technology.
As shale gas availability spreads globally, gas prices will tumble. Fraccing has already trigged this in the USA.
In June 2008 the price of natural gas was 12.69 per mBTU (million British Thermal Units); | |
by April 2012 this had crashed by over 80% to just $1.82. |
Dramatically lower gas prices will encourage industry and individuals to adopt it in place of dirtier fuels - notably coal, wood, turf, oil - and to seek innovative ways to use it. Only last year the world's first major gas-to-liquids plant was commissioned, in tiny but gas-abundant Qatar. Called Pearl, it converts gas into fuels similar to petrol, diesel or kerosene, suitable even for commercial airliners.
It will, moreover, be only a matter of time before abundant gas drives down the cost of all competitor energies. This process will probably not excessively favour the corporations that extract and market energy, whose increased volumes will be offset by lower unit prices - for example, Shell is already hurting in the US. But conversely, it is likely to be a bonanza for energy-intensive industries, such as the manufacture of steel, aluminium, cement, glass, and of course transportation.
Above all, however since every one of us relies on energy for practically everything, the coming price-drop is going to amount to a massive global, across-the-board stimulus. But a stimulus without debt - that doesn't need to be repaid by future generations.
Surely this must amount to the only viable solution on the horizon to the global economic crisis that is engulfing the globe, seemingly with no end in sight.
Moreover, since so much of the new, fracced energy is going to come from within consumer and other West-friendly countries, the West's huge and precarious dependence on MENAf is going to reduce fulgurantly - as well as reducing transportation costs.
In turn, MENAf oil revenues (by far those countries' principle source of income) will be slashed as they lose not only export volumes but also in unit prices. This will much reduce their ability to cause trouble and sponsor Jihad. It will cause them to focus at last on the on non-oil, regular part of their economy, in a manner that can only benefit their populations - and the rest of the world.
In summary, fraccing is triggering an energy revolution whose effects will be almost wholy benign, for individuals, industries, countries, global economics and geopolitics.
And yet an awful lot of people oppose it fanatically; but that is no mystery. They remain in the dark over what fraccing actually entails, its opportunities - and yes - risks, because the industry does so little to explain itself. It is therefore entirely reasonable for ordinary citizens to adopt the precautionary maxim that “if you don't know, say no”, when they are operating in a void. Moreover it is into that very void that activist objectors eagerly leap, with a far more articulate message than the industry's .
The answer therefore is for the industry to go out and get its own message across with similar skill and enthusiasm as its opponents. In other words to evangelise.
This and previous posts, along with associated lectures I have given, are my own modest attempt to address this. If you would like me to speak about fraccing at meetings (no charge), just drop me a line at blog2-at-tallrite-dot-com.
I repeat. Modern fraccing represents an entirely benign revolution that all humanity should embrace.
Policing Gay Boudoirs - 6th February 2013
Confusion about
who must and who must not
indulge in gay sex in the brave new world of gay marriage
Same-sex partnerships/unions/marriages throw up new problems that make such “institutions” increasingly ridiculous, because of the necessity that gay-sex be performed - or not.
Same-sex civil partnerships, with all the associated tax-breaks, are available to couples (though for some reason not threes or fours) if and only if they actually practice their gay sex; there is no room for celibacy.
This can be the only explanation why such partnerships are not open to couples who eschew sex, such as the Burden sisters, two elderly spinsters who share their family home jointly inherited from their parents. When one of the ladies dies, the death duties the other must pay will force her to sell the house and move out. Were they bound within a civil partnership, the surviving sister would simply inherit, tax-free, her “partner's” half. But such a partnership - and the associated fiscal advantages - are not open to them because no gay-sex is involved. Likewise, why shouldn't a pair of (celibate) bridge partners or a man and his sons be eligible for the civil-partnership tax breaks? But they're not. No sex, no tax breaks.
What about equality? And surely we all are supposed to have human rights?
Well, no we don't.
Unless my buddy and I are prepared for some gay gymnastics in the boudoir (or maybe on the kitchen table) we're not going to get the breaks created for single-sex couples in a civil partnership.
Unless ... and here is where it gets (even more) weird.
The Church of England have been wrestling for decades with what to do about its gay clergy. It eventually - grudgingly, gradually over many years - accepted that they existed, that many of them were in gay relationships and some in civil unions. But, goaded by its conservative wing mainly in Africa, the Church drew the line at elevating gay priests to bishophood.
It was convulsed, therefore, when its American wing, the Protestant Episcopal Church, decided to break this taboo and promote Gene Robinson in 2004 to become Bishop of New Hampshire. For Bishop Robinson is not just gay but openly living with fellow-gay Mark Andrew, and by all accounts enjoying a gay old sex life. By the way, the bishop started out marrying a woman in 1972 who bore him two children, but then divorced her in 1986/7 in favour of Mr Andrew.
The new couple were “married” in both a civil partnership ceremony and in a formal church service in June 2008, with Rev Robinson declaring that he “always wanted to be a June bride”. (In impeccably correct fashion, the administering priest was of course a woman.)
Predictably, when the Reverend became a Bishop six years later, the Anglican community outside America (and much of it within) were outraged, with Bishop Akinola of Nigeria leading the backlash. Schism was threatened.
But as is generally the Anglican way, the Church of England over time slowly learnt to bend with the wind and accept what they deemed unavoidable. Thus it is that on 20 December, in the face of fierce opposition (again largely led by Nigeria) it decided that gays in civil partnerships CAN now be elevated to bishophood.
On one condition. That they and their partners practice celibacy.
So what is a poor gay married CofE bishop supposed to do?
His bosses tell him no sex please, you're a bishop, | |
while the state who sanctioned his civil partnership makes clear that sex is an integral element of his partnership. |
And pity the Inland Revenue inspectors and Church Sextons (a propitious job title?) whose job is to police the gay-sex of their respective constituents, ensuring that it is simultaneously taking place and not, as the case may be. How they accomplish this vital task on behalf of wider society I know not, but someone's got to make sure the ridiculous rules are being upheld.
Nevertheless, it seems the only chance for my non-gay buddy and me is for one of us to become an Anglican bishop and then get “married”, or the other way round. Provided we can dodge both the taxman and the sexton, we get the tax-breaks without the boudoir, er, unpleasantnesses.
But with one-man-one-woman marriage now obsolete and the old-fashioned constraints of the phrase rendered meaningless, don't get me started on marriage between Amy and her fairground ride ...
Gaza Ghetto - 6th February 2013
No logic or reason
informs the arguments of Israel-haters and/or Jew-haters
(if indeed there is a difference)
This is a cartoon from the Facebook page, “Israel is a War Criminal”, to which I couldn't resist responding.
“Yeah right”, I wrote sarcastically. “Those damn Jews kept lobbing so many rockets at the poor innocent Nazis that they had no choice but to round them up, ship them to concentration camps and gas them”.
Sanya Petrovic Fukerkov took the bait: “You think the Palestinian rocket fire is the bigger problem than the Israeli system”
I answered her with actual data, and since it took me a bit of time to collate them, I though it worthwhile to store the results here on my Tallrite Blog so as to have it on record.
I hate being boring with facts, I told her, but eight thousand rockets fired from Gaza into Israel is in fact a big “problem”.
The moment the rockets stop, the Gaza blockade as some call it will stop. It's that simple.
Here's the breakdown (with sources).
Rockets fired into Israel
2001: 7 | 2005: 401 | 2009: 569 |
2002: 42 | 2006: 1716 | 2010: 150 |
2003: 105 | 2007: 1271 | 2011: 386 |
2004: 159 | 2008: 1399 | 2012: 1814 |
Total 2001-2012: 8,019 |
And since when I see a collection of numbers I cannot resist drawing a chart, here it is. A colourful pictures speaks a lot louder than numbers.
My two sources were:
Quora (which proclaims that it “connects you to everything you want to know about”) and | |
Jewish Virtual Library (Sanya will hate that!) |
Eventually the discussion thread petered out when my opponents tired of calling me names and inventing “facts”.
Fai Chun - Year of the Snake - 6th February 2013
Hey, it's just a snake
Professor Lap-Chee Tsui is the Vice-Chancellor of Hong Kong University, my first alma mater. He created this Chinese calligraphy of Fai Chun as a greeting to family and friends to commemorate the Year of the Snake, which begins on 10th February 2013 and runs until 31st January 2014. So please accept this greeting from me to you.
In case you want to create your own Fai Chun, it's easy. Here's how.
Anybody Here Seen Kerry? - 6th February 2013
Unfortunately, we're going to see rather too much of him for the next four years
Now that the Senate has endorsed John Kerry as Secretary of State for the next four years, in what has to be one of the Buffoon-in-Chief's worst thought-through senior cabinet appointments (in a field of ferocious competition), it's time to recall the Democratic Presidential convention of 2004. After Mr Kerry gave a typically ponderous vainglorious speech preceded by a childish “reporting-for-duty” moment, he was endorsed as presidential candidate, to face (and lose to) George W Bush who was seeking re-election.
During his campaign, he constantly bragged about his military record in Vietnam, but this was thoroughly debunked by his own comrades in arms, the so-called Swiftboaters, who refused to subscribe to his baloney.
So I couldn't help mocking him.
Have a fifty-second listen.
Horseburger Groans - 6th February 2013
Groan
“I've eaten one too many of those equine burgers; I reckon I can't take another - I am horse de combat”.
If, following the horse-in-burger-meat scandal, you are groaning from one too many horseburger jokes, and would like to groan some more, I have collected all the ones I could (easily) find. You can find them on one of my Light Relief pages.
Groan.
Issue 222’s
Comments to Cyberspace
Period August 2012 to February 2013
Cost of Corrib Protests
[P!]
Letter
published in the Irish Times
The report in your newspaper on the latest protests over Shell’s
development of the Corrib gas field that “the
cost of developing the Corrib gas field could be
four times the initial estimate of €800 million at
more than €3 billion”. Simultaneously, the
project timetable has trebled from four years
(delivery in 2007) to 12 (2015). These
overruns are due overwhelmingly to the protests
against a project that was and is proceeding in full
compliance ...
Assorted Online Comments
- February 2013 | |
Assorted Online Comments
- January 2013 | |
Assorted Online Comments
- December 2012 | |
Higgins's wings clipped in full debate
[P!] | |
Children Rights Referendum
[P!] | |
Assorted Online Comments
- November 2012 | |
Assorted Online Comments
- October 2012 | |
Ireland's freedom of speech
culture | |
Insult to Muhammad | |
Price of medicines | |
Assorted Online Comments
- September 2012 | |
Assorted Online Comments
- August 2012 | |
ESM
Treaty an invitation to corruption |
Quote (19th March): “OK, so props don't ever join the referee ranks because it's a lot of running. But would it be so harmful to perhaps get a prop on the pitch to officiate at scrum-time only? He could then leave the field until the next scrum. He wouldn't have to run anywhere, he'd get free pies on the touchline, and we'd have a scrum official who'd really know what was going on.”
A commentator's suggestion at the recent
Wales/England 6-Nations championship decider,
which was heavily punctuated by inscrutable penalties at scrum time.
The problem is that rugby referees are never props (who hate running)
and therefore never understand the mysterious, nefarious machinations
grinding within the dark recesses of a heaving, wheezing, sweat-laden scrum.
Hat-tip: Graham Hunt in Perth, Oz
Quote (19th March): “Sure what could go wrong? It is the day after St Patrick’s Day, a roomful of Paddies, a free bar and the future king of England. It’s going to be messy.”
Comedian Patrick Nulty at a €1,000-per-plate
testimonial dinner
in London for Irish rugby star Brian O'Driscoll,
attended by, inter alia, the Duke of Cambridge
Quote (19th Feb): “Ah no, I'll let someone else eat him. I know him too well!”
Paddy Jack, in Dublin's
Temple Bar Farmers' Market,
where he serves horse steak sandwiches in Ireland's only horse meat outlet.
He his referring to Do
or Die, his pet racehorse
who is being trained to compete.
But if on the racecourse
Do or Die fails to Do the business he will Die
- and be served up on Mr Jack's stall.
Though for sentimental reasons not to Mr Jack himself.
Quote (12th Feb): “Nothing I’m proposing tonight should increase our deficit by a single dime.”
President Obama explains in his 2013 State
of the Union address
that his proposed litany of more spending, new programs and new
bureaucracies
will not increase America's $16½ trillion deficit
“by a single dime”!
Yes, really!
Quote (7th Feb): “My concrete question to the Irish presidency is: what are you doing to tackle the problem of growing Christian persecution?”
Dutch
MEP Peter van Dalen, in response to the reported persecution of
a hundred 100 million Christians around the world,
demands that Ireland as current EU “president”,
take concrete action.
Ireland's response? Waffle, of course
Quote: “Statistics are like a bikini; it shows a lot but not the whole thing.”
Scott Johnson, the Australian coach of
Scotland’s rugby union side,
before on 2nd February it lost (again) to England not just in points scored,
18-38,
but on almost every other statistic measured during the match,
as indeed in most matches for the past thirty years
Hattip: Graham Hunt
Quote: “For every hundred crimes committed in Britain today just one criminal will end up with a conviction in a court of law.”
Chris Huhne, Minister of Justice, in
2008
bemoaning the easy ride 99% of criminals get.
Chris Huhne in 2013 became part of the
unlucky one percent
when he was convicted and jailed
for perverting the course of justice over ...
a speeding ticket.
Quote: “We don't have to pay England to be our friend, so why do we have to pay Egypt?”
Senator Rand Paul objects to America
sending
F-16s and cash to Egypt under the rule of its
anti-Semitic, holocaust-denying, dictatorship-creating
president Mohammed Morsi
Quote (Facebook, Philip O'Sullivan): “Despite spending six centuries buried under a car park, he still has better teeth than most of the guests on the ghastly Jeremy Kyle show.”
The best comment so far With regard to King Richard III
Now, for a little [Light Relief]
“”
Gift Idea |
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Good to report that as at
FREED AT LAST, |
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BLOGROLL
Atlantic Blog (defunct) Blog-Irish (defunct)
Jihad
Religion
Iona Institute
Leisure
Blog Directory
My Columns in the
|
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What I've recently
But it's not
entirely honest in its subtle pro-Palestinian bias, and therefore needs
to be read in conjunction with an antidote, such as See detailed review +++++
BP's ambitious CEO John Browne expanded it through adventurous acquisitions, aggressive offshore exploration, and relentless cost-reduction that trumped everything else, even safety and long-term technical sustainability. Thus mistakes accumulated, leading to terrifying and deadly accidents in refineries, pipelines and offshore operations, and business disaster in Russia. The Macondo blowout was but an inevitable outcome of a BP culture that had become poisonous and incompetent. However the book is gravely compromised by a litany of over 40 technical and stupid errors that display the author's ignorance and carelessness. It would be better to wait for the second (properly edited) edition before buying. As for BP, only a wholesale rebuilding of a new, professional, ethical culture will prevent further such tragedies and the eventual destruction of a once mighty corporation with a long and generally honourable history. Note: I wrote
my own reports on Macondo +++++ A horrific account of:
More details on my blog here. +++++
After recounting a childhood of convention and simple pleasures in working-class Aberdeen, Mr Urquhart is conscripted within days of Chamberlain declaring war on Germany in 1939. From then until the Japanese are deservedly nuked into surrendering six years later, Mr Urquhart’s tale is one of first discomfort but then following the fall of Singapore of ever-increasing, unmitigated horror. After a wretched journey Eastward, he finds himself part of Singapore’s big but useless garrison. Taken prisoner when Singapore falls in 1941, he is, successively,
Chronically ill, distraught and traumatised on return to Aberdeen yet disdained by the British Army, he slowly reconstructs a life. Only in his late 80s is he able finally to recount his dreadful experiences in this unputdownable book. There are very few first-person eye-witness accounts of the the horrors of Japanese brutality during WW2. As such this book is an invaluable historical document. +++++
This is a rattling good tale of the web of corruption within which the American president and his cronies operate. It's written by blogger Michele Malkin who, because she's both a woman and half-Asian, is curiously immune to the charges of racism and sexism this book would provoke if written by a typical Republican WASP. With 75 page of notes to back up - in best blogger tradition - every shocking and in most cases money-grubbing allegation, she excoriates one Obama crony after another, starting with the incumbent himself and his equally tricky wife. Joe Biden, Rahm Emmanuel, Valerie Jarett, Tim Geithner, Lawrence Summers, Steven Rattner, both Clintons, Chris Dodd: they all star as crooks in this venomous but credible book. ACORN, Mr Obama's favourite community organising outfit, is also exposed for the crooked vote-rigging machine it is. +++++
It is really just a collation of amusing little tales about surprising human (and occasionally animal) behaviour and situations. For example:
The book has no real message other than don't be surprised how humans sometimes behave and try to look for simple rather than complex solutions. And with a final anecdote (monkeys, cash and sex), the book suddenly just stops dead in its tracks. Weird. ++++++
It's chapters are organised around provocative questions such as
It's central thesis is that economic development continues to be impeded in different countries for different historical reasons, even when the original rationale for those impediments no longer obtains. For instance:
The author writes in a very chatty, light-hearted matter which makes the book easy to digest. However it would benefit from a few charts to illustrate some of the many quantitative points put forward, as well as sub-chaptering every few pages to provide natural break-points for the reader. +++++
The author was a member of Britain's V Force, a forerunner of the SAS. Its remit was to harass Japanese lines of command, patrol their occupied territory, carryout sabotage and provide intelligence, with the overall objective of keeping the enemy out of India. Irwin is admirably yet brutally frank, in his descriptions of deathly battles with the Japs, his execution of a prisoner, dodging falling bags of rice dropped by the RAF, or collapsing in floods of tears through accumulated stress, fear and loneliness. He also provides some fascinating insights into the mentality of Japanese soldiery and why it failed against the flexibility and devolved authority of the British. The book amounts to a very human and exhilarating tale. Oh, and Irwin describes the death in 1943 of his colleague my uncle, Major PF Brennan. +++++ Other books here |
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|
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After
48
crackling, compelling, captivating games, the new World Champions are,
deservedly,
England get the Silver,
No-one can argue with
Over the competition, |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gift Idea |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Good to report that as at
FREED AT LAST, |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BLOGROLL
Atlantic Blog (defunct) Blog-Irish (defunct)
Jihad
Religion
Iona Institute
Leisure
Blog Directory
My Columns in the
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What I've recently
But it's not
entirely honest in its subtle pro-Palestinian bias, and therefore needs
to be read in conjunction with an antidote, such as See detailed review +++++
BP's ambitious CEO John Browne expanded BP through adventurous acquisitions, aggressive offshore exploration, and relentless cost-reduction that trumped everything else, even safety and long-term technical sustainability. Thus mistakes accumulated, leading to terrifying and deadly accidents in refineries, pipelines and offshore operations, and business disaster in Russia. The Macondo blowout was but an inevitable outcome of a BP culture that had become poisonous and incompetent. However the book is gravely compromised by a litany of over 40 technical and stupid errors that display the author's ignorance and carelessness. It would be better to wait for the second (properly edited) edition before buying. As for BP, only a wholesale rebuilding of a new, professional, ethical culture will prevent further such tragedies and the eventual destruction of a once mighty corporation with a long and generally honourable history. Note: I wrote
my own reports on Macondo +++++ A horrific account of:
More details on my blog here. +++++
After recounting a childhood of convention and simple pleasures in working-class Aberdeen, Mr Urquhart is conscripted within days of Chamberlain declaring war on Germany in 1939. From then until the Japanese are deservedly nuked into surrendering six years later, Mr Urquhart’s tale is one of first discomfort but then following the fall of Singapore of ever-increasing, unmitigated horror. After a wretched journey Eastward, he finds himself part of Singapore’s big but useless garrison. Taken prisoner when Singapore falls in 1941, he is, successively,
Chronically ill, distraught and traumatised on return to Aberdeen yet disdained by the British Army, he slowly reconstructs a life. Only in his late 80s is he able finally to recount his dreadful experiences in this unputdownable book. There are very few first-person eye-witness accounts of the the horrors of Japanese brutality during WW2. As such this book is an invaluable historical document. +++++
This is a rattling good tale of the web of corruption within which the American president and his cronies operate. It's written by blogger Michele Malkin who, because she's both a woman and half-Asian, is curiously immune to the charges of racism and sexism this book would provoke if written by a typical Republican WASP. With 75 page of notes to back up - in best blogger tradition - every shocking and in most cases money-grubbing allegation, she excoriates one Obama crony after another, starting with the incumbent himself and his equally tricky wife. Joe Biden, Rahm Emmanuel, Valerie Jarett, Tim Geithner, Lawrence Summers, Steven Rattner, both Clintons, Chris Dodd: they all star as crooks in this venomous but credible book. ACORN, Mr Obama's favourite community organising outfit, is also exposed for the crooked vote-rigging machine it is. +++++
It is really just a collation of amusing little tales about surprising human (and occasionally animal) behaviour and situations. For example:
The book has no real message other than don't be surprised how humans sometimes behave and try to look for simple rather than complex solutions. And with a final anecdote (monkeys, cash and sex), the book suddenly just stops dead in its tracks. Weird. ++++++
It's chapters are organised around provocative questions such as
It's central thesis is that economic development continues to be impeded in different countries for different historical reasons, even when the original rationale for those impediments no longer obtains. For instance:
The author writes in a very chatty, light-hearted matter which makes the book easy to digest. However it would benefit from a few charts to illustrate some of the many quantitative points put forward, as well as sub-chaptering every few pages to provide natural break-points for the reader. +++++
The author was a member of Britain's V Force, a forerunner of the SAS. Its remit was to harass Japanese lines of command, patrol their occupied territory, carryout sabotage and provide intelligence, with the overall objective of keeping the enemy out of India. Irwin is admirably yet brutally frank, in his descriptions of deathly battles with the Japs, his execution of a prisoner, dodging falling bags of rice dropped by the RAF, or collapsing in floods of tears through accumulated stress, fear and loneliness. He also provides some fascinating insights into the mentality of Japanese soldiery and why it failed against the flexibility and devolved authority of the British. The book amounts to a very human and exhilarating tale. Oh, and Irwin describes the death in 1943 of his colleague my uncle, Major PF Brennan. +++++ Other books here |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
After
48
crackling, compelling, captivating games, the new World Champions are,
deservedly,
England get the Silver,
No-one can argue with
Over the competition, |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
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