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TALLRITE BLOG
You can write to me at
blog2-at-tallrite-dot-com |
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Quarter 1 - 2012 |
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ISSUE #219 - Quarter 1, 2012 [
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Quote: “If women are so bloody
perfect at multitasking, how come they can’t have a headache and sex at the
same time?” The Greatest Living
Scottish Thinker Quote: “It is unlawful for a person to do an act, otherwise than in private, if the act is reasonably likely, in all the circumstances, to offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate another person or a group of people.” Australia's new Section 18C of its 1975
Racial Discrimination Act
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Tallrite Debates Fraccing on TV - 13th March
2012
My earlier post, “Truth About Fraccing”, which I wrote in frustration at the awful dearth of fraccing knowledge that passed for “debate” in the Irish and much of the foreign media. As a result, protestors were setting the terms of discussion, projecting an aura of competence about fraccing that they clearly did not possess, any more than their interlocuters. Indeed, even the occasional representative of the fraccing industry seemed to me to have but a shaky grasp of the technology. So what was the unfortunate listener or viewer to make of it all? Well, he/she in the absence of any coherent alternative view, would have no choice but two swallow the line dangled by the protestors. One particular radio discussion drove me to such despair that I sent the RTE, the state broadcaster, a copy of my post to try to set the record straight. It seemed to have disappeared into a black hole, but to my surprise two weeks later I suddenly got a call from RTE asking if I would partake in a TV discussion of fraccing on its weekly Frontline programme. My e-mail had triggered the invitation. So on 6th February I went along to the studio. You can access the programme here; I first appear shortly after Minute 5. After the programme, I had a lively discussion with Leah Doherty (with long black hair), the first lady to speak. It afforded me a brief glimpse into the world of the professional protestor, a world fill with non-facts, devoid of science, impervious to logic. It must be strange indeed to inhabit such a head. A couple of weeks later I was called again to appear on RTE's Prime Time current affairs programme, on this occasion to debate one-to-one with a professional protestor called Jessica Ernst who had flown in (at whose cost I can only guess) from Canada to join Irish protests against fraccing.
She peddled her story (as she regularly does, to anti-fraccers around the world) about fraccing in shallow formations on her land in Alberta, which has absolutely no relevance to the case for fraccing in Leitrim. Any more than the swampy land she notes in Leitrim has any relevance to conditions one kilometre deep where fraccing is proposed. Nevertheless, her professional protesting is evidently earning her a reasonable living and an exciting international jet-set life-style. You can access the Prime Time programme online too. I first appear at about Minute 26 and you will see how my contribution was repeatedly cut short before I could finish my points. Nevertheless, I think I was able to inject a bit of common sense and scientific knowledge into the debate. This appearance made me a minor hate-figure among anti-fraccers, who now apparently call me Oilwright, meant to be an insult, but which I regard as a great compliment. A central member of the Irish anti-fraccers is a nun, Sister Majella McCarron, apparently an engineer from Belfast, who worked as a missionary in Nigeria for thirty-odd years (unless it's a fake identity, which it might well be). She also (unsurprisingly) doesn't like Shell!
Here is one of her contributions to the No Fracking Ireland Facebook page. I don't know whether her complaint about me was actually sent to RTE, but I hope it was - it's good for my street cred.
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Tale of Two Mothers - 13th March 2012 The contrast is too stark to ignore
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Frank Carson One-Liners (RIP) - - 13th March 2012 It's the way he used to tell them Frank Carson, knighted in 1987 by Pope John Paul II into the order of St GregoryNorthern Ireland’s much beloved comedian, Frank Carson, famous for his one-liners and catch-phrase “it’s the way yah tell it”, died on 22nd February, aged 85. May he rest in peace. In tribute, here is a smidgin of his legacy:
Hat tip: Dave Parker
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Sofa King's Ads Are Too Low - 13th March 2012 A slogan is banned for being too witty An English cut-price furniture store in Northampton called The Sofa King has been in business for nine years, and has already survived at least one challenge to its advertising slogan. Now another challenge has persuaded the Advertising Standards Authority to ban the slogan. I suppose it had to happen, given the wording: “Where our Prices are Sofa King Low!”
Hat tip: Graham Hunt |
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Quote (5th March 2012): “We're making new investments in the development of gasoline and diesel fuel and jet fuel that's actually made from a plant-like substance ... algae ... If we can figure out how to make energy out of that, we'll be doing all right. Believe it or not, we could replace up to 17% of the oil we import for transportation with this fuel we can grow right here in the United States.” President Obama, speaking at the University of Miami. Incredibly, he was not cracking a joke. |
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Fiscal Treaty Referendum Ballot Paper - 3rd March 2012 Broadsheet.ie leaks the ballot paper. No-one understands EU referendums like the Irish.
Hat tip: Tom Carew
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Quote (3 March 2012): "Die, die, foreigners!" An Afghan mob's reaction after a few books,
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Crazy University Courses - 1st March 2012 If you are one of those young people who desperately want a university degree but with the minimum of effort, along with a five-figure university debt you have no hope of repaying with the degree you have earned, then Anne Coulter has a great list of courses and American universities for you to choose from.
Alternatively, either knuckle down, get proficient in mathematics and study something scientific, technical or medical, or else go out and get a job or better still an apprenticeship. In other words, acquire skills that other people will pay you good money for. Then, just live a little.
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Troubling Trebling of Corrib Costs Irish Taxpayers 75% - 21st February 2012 Those who have been protesting against
the development of Ireland's Corrib offshore gas field Last November I wrote a post about Corrib, Ireland's offshore gasfield in the Atlantic Ocean being developed by Shell, and how local protests alone have trebled both
Neither technical issues nor financial difficulties nor industrial relations strife have contributed to this very troubling trebling. It is the result solely of the efforts of a handful of local people, aided and abetted by left-wing sypathisers (eg Sinn Fein, Labour) and international professional protestors (eg the son of Ken Saro Wiwa who was executed for multiple murder by the Nigerian judicial system but with Shell being blamed). Many of the protestors like to make the further point that Ireland's taxation terms are far too favourable to Shell, denying the Irish taxpayer its rightful share of its hydrocarbon patrimony. They draw the contrast with the prolific oil and gas provinces of Norway and the UK. However they make no allowance for the fact that these countries' discovery rates are around one per five exploration wells drilled, whereas Ireland's is closer to one per four hundred. When you don't have much to offer in terms of prospects you cannot demand much either, at least until prospects improve. But picking up on the theme that taxpayer take should be maximised, it is instructive to calculate what the protestors alone have denied to Irish taxpayers as a direct consequence of their troubling trebling. If a company exploits an Irish oil or gas field, it is taxed at 25% of profits; there are no royalty payments. The profits are calculated at revenue from sale of product, less operating costs, less capital investment. No tax is paid until all the capital has been recovered. Thus the troubling trebling has cost the taxpayer real money in two ways:
I do not have access to actual figures so I have had to make some simple assumptions. I have assumed that revenue minus operating costs is €100m per year, but declining to zero at 4.2% pa over the field's final years. In order to make a comparison between pre- and post-trebling, I have also had to assume a field life long enough to yield any tax revenues at all (a moot point). I have also taken a discount rate of 5%. Though my assumptions are entirely my own, I have run many iterations using different assumptions. The interesting point to note is that the overall conclusion does not vary very much. Consider first annual tax take in cash terms. According to the original (non-trebled) plan shown in blue below, production would have commenced in 2007 and it would have taken, with an assumed annual net revenue of €100mm eight years to recover the €800m capital cost. Thus tax income at 25%, ie €25m per year or €100m per four years, would begin in 2015, yielding a total of €650m if field life extended to 2047. However, after the troubling trebling as shown in red, it takes 25 years to recover the trebled €2.5bn cost, leaving only €250m for the beleaguered taxpayer - a reduction of 62%. The field produces for eight years longer, ie to 2055.
But it gets worse, because of not only the 16 year delay in first tax revenues (from 2015 to 2031) because of the trebling of capital cost that must first be recovered, but there is a further eight year delay, to 2039, because the whole project delivery time has trebled. The effect of these delays becomes clear when the figures are calculated on NPV terms, for which I have used a conservative discount rate of just 5%. Here the time value of money reduces both the blue and the red bars, but especially the latter.
When the bars are added up, the cumulative values appear as in the chart below. The total tax revenue under the original plan comes to an NPV of €268m, whereas under the troubling trebling it will reach a mere €42m, an astonishing reduction of 84%.
As mentioned, these calculations can be run with many different assumptions, as to income, field life, production decline rate, discount factor, which give different values for the 84% shown above. However they are all in a similar ballpark. Indeed under some scenarios - eg a field life too short to recover all the trebled costs - the loss of tax is 100%. The most optimistic set of assumptions still showed a loss of over 70%. Therefore the overall rational,
non-exaggerated conclusion to draw is that the protestors have,
Thanks, guys 'n' gals. Please spread this dirty little secret to all and sundry. It needs to be widely known.
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Patriarchal Inevitability - 21st February 2012 A lively debate has a predictable outcome
Earlier this month (2nd February) The Phil kindly asked me to speak in favour of the motion that “This House Believes Patriarchy Is Inevitable”. Once again I was on the non-PC side as everyone knows that male dominance is doomed - or at least it damned-well ought to be
The banter went something like this
Here's what I had to say, in my view one of the best speeches of the evening (but then I would think that). The photo is from The Phil's Facebook page. Here's what I had to say, in my view one of the best speeches of the evening (but then I would think that). The photo is from The Phil's Facebook page.
every such day of this is another day that the old Patriarchy is eroded. That’s because women can perform the equal of men in all these diverse spheres, that are primarily cerebral rather than physical. Meanwhile the need for physical labour becomes every day a smaller proportion of the wealth-creating economy. So though the world has for thousands of years been thoroughly Patriarchal, in the democratic West, the rise of the Matriarchy has been relentless and is continuing. I stress the Western democracies, because elsewhere you will not see any serious threat to the Patriarchy. And whaddya know, those non-democracies are also far behind the West in terms of wealth and all other measures of human welfare, notwithstanding the current economic tempest. Their lack of individual freedom translates both to economic non-development and to the non-development of women in society. Moreover, how can a country expect to reach its full potential if it hobbles half of its intellectual workforce. So the question, “is Patriarchy inevitable” has two strands.
In the 1980s after Soviet Communism imploded and Western democracy-stroke-capitalism triumphed, its global spread seemed unstoppable. The hitherto respected historian Francis Fukuyama even wrote a tome which in a fit of hubris he named “The End of History”, because he thought the entire world – having witnessed the dead-endism of socialism – would now clasp the Western system to its collective bosom. But he and everyone were wrong. Yes, democracy did spread to parts of Africa, Europe, Latin America and Asia that had never known it – and reaped multiple rewards for their peoples. But
And what is the common denominator of these rivals to Western-style democracy? Since they depend upon constraining individual freedom of activity and lifestyle, they all require the physical subjugation of populations – entailing guns, prisons, beatings, executions, and the pervading threat of these. And because men are physically stronger, men will always do the bulk of the subjugating, not women. Such systems are Patriarchal because they have to be, simply to survive. Just look at Syria. So forget Mr Fukuyama. The world will always be in turmoil; different systems will advance and retreat throughout future history. But only one – Western democracy – will consistently give women a fair crack of the whip, indeed allow them to wield the whip. But will it, can it, ever rule the world? No. Therefore, in the global sense, Patriarchy is inevitable. But what about within the Western democracies? Will the gals eventually overtake the guys? Intellectually, there is no reason why they can’t or shouldn’t. Go round the schools and universities, look who is attending what, look at the exam scores, and in general you will find what Rudyard Kipling found: “that the female of the species is more deadly than the male”. Indeed a Central Statistics Office study released only last Tuesday confirmed that women are better educated. So the female superiority we see in the classrooms today is a fair reflection of what we will see in the boardrooms tomorrow … … Unless of course there’s a roadblock. For it’s not all about intellectual prowess, is it? Innate human nature is always there – we can dodge it but few of us can escape it altogether.
Needless to say, when it came to the customary voice vote at the end of the debate, they didn't: the nays far out-shouted the yeas. As was to be expected. A most entertaining evening nonetheless and I am most grateful to The Phil for inviting me.
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Morality of Bombing and of Total War - 21st February 2012 Sometimes blanket bombing and total war are the moral options On 15th February 1945, towards the end of World War 2, when the Nazis were clearly on the back foot and the Allies were fighting their way relentlessly towards Germany from France and from Russia, the RAF under Air Marshal Arthur (“Bomber”) Harris mounted a massive areal bombardment of Dresden. Around 35,000 people were killed and probably ten times that number injured. “They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind”, he said, quoting the Bible, and he meant it. With the wisdom and safety of hindsight, people ever since then have denounced this and similar attacks as unwarranted war-crimes inflicting untold suffering on civilians. I leave it for now to columnist Eoghan Harris (no relation) to demonstrate how puerile such moral posturing is. What caught my attention was a BBC TV documentary about Bomber Command marking the 2012 anniversary, presented (and experienced) by actor Ewen McGregor and his present-day RAF fight-pilot brother Colin. Called “Bomber Boys”, this programme explored what life must have been like for the RAF crews who flew massive (and speedy, manoeuvrable) four-engined Lancaster bombers in those sorties over Germany, ignoring searchlights and flak, trying to dodge German nightfighters, delivering their deadly cargo and suffering 50% casualties in the whole process.
Notwithstanding the magnificent shots of Lancaster bombers then and now, the programme really came alive for me when existing veterans were interviewed - a pilot, a gunner, a navigator - now all in their late eighties, but as mentally alert as ever. So, how did they and their colleagues feel at the time about raining hell on cities like Dresden for two solid days with an armada of 700 aircraft? Actually, they thoroughly approved. “The Germans started it” was the common refrain. I then put similar questions to my own father, now 97 years old, then a Squadron Leader who served with the RAF throughout the six years of war and took part in the Normandy invasion, marching through France, the Netherlands and into Germany itself. He was not flight crew, he was a dentist to flight crew (and other RAF staff). But naturally he was in tune with the mood among his colleagues in the RAF. His view was identical to that of the RAF veterans on TV: “They started it”. Moreover, he added, “we were in favour of anything that might shorten the war and anything that was bad for the Germans”. For similar reasons he and his pals were delighted to learn of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, especially since they considerably reduced the chances of being transferred to the Far East, which had been the much dreaded plan for most of the military in Europe once Germany had surrendered. I also asked him did he hate the Germans at the time or just view them as adversaries (as you might an opposing football team). He was adamant: “we hated them”. But when asked did he stop hating them: “Yes, not long after the war ended”. Any residual hatred: “none whatsoever”. To those among the educated liberal elites who from the comfort and security of their armchairs in the 21st century choose to denounce as war crimes
raids that killed tens of thousands at a time, I would ask, “what part of total war do you not understand”? War is hell and therefore should always be the last resort. But once entered into, its most humane, and indeed moral, option is to wage it fast and hard and lethally in order to win it and end it in as short a time as possible. If that is not our objective we shouldn't engage in it at all. In other words, total war or no war. We who have lived blessed, peaceful and prosperous lives thanks directly to the total war waged and won from 1939 to 1945 at enormous cost by our fathers and grandfathers, from many of whom was exacted the ultimate price, have forgotten what it is to live under such existential threat that total war is the only answer. In the West today, only Israel faces a
comparable menace - from its neighbours and from a nuclear Iran sworn to
wipe it from the map, with a
single bomb. Total war is becoming its only remaining - and entirely
moral - option.
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Issue 219’s Comments to Cyberspace - 21st February 2012
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Quotes for Issue 219 - 21st February, 13th, 15th, 27th March 2012 - - - - - - S C O T L A N D - - - - - - Quote: “If women are so bloody perfect at multitasking, how come they can’t have a headache and sex at the same time?” Scotland's greatest living thinker – Billy Connolly - - - - - A U S T R A L I A - - - - - Quote: “It is unlawful for a person to do an act, otherwise than in private, if the act is reasonably likely, in all the circumstances, to offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate another person or a group of people.” Australia's new Section 18C of its 1975
Racial Discrimination Act - - - - - U S / P R E S I D E N C Y - - - - - Quote (5th March 2012): “We're making new investments in the development of gasoline and diesel fuel and jet fuel that's actually made from a plant-like substance ... algae ... If we can figure out how to make energy out of that, we'll be doing all right. Believe it or not, we could replace up to 17% of the oil we import for transportation with this fuel we can grow right here in the United States.” President Obama, speaking at the University of Miami. Incredibly, he was not cracking a joke. Quote (3 March 2012): "Die, die, foreigners!" An Afghan mob's reaction after a few books,
Quote - 23rd February: “I wish to express my deep regret for the reported incident ... I extend to you and the Afghan people my sincere apologies ... The error was inadvertent; I assure you that we will take the appropriate steps to avoid any recurrence, to include holding accountable those responsible.” Yet another grovelling
apology from President Obama was
writing to Afghanistan's President Karzai Muslims then murdered
30 people as a result. Quote: “When Congress refuses to act — and as a result, hurts our economy and puts our people at risk — then I have an obligation as president to do what I can without them. I have an obligation to act on behalf of the American people. I'm not going to stand by while a minority in the Senate puts party ideology ahead of the people that we are elected to serve. Not with so much at stake, not at this make-or-break moment for middle class Americans. We're not gonna let that happen.” President Obama decides
that he is bigger than the nation's parliament, He appointed, inter alia, Richard Cordray as
director of Quote: “The selection of a Republican candidate for the presidency of this globalized and expansive empire is — and I mean this seriously — the greatest competition of idiocy and ignorance that has ever been.” The almost late,
certainly unlamented, Quote: “You know, back in my days, they’d use Bayer aspirin for contraceptives. The gals put it between their knees and it wasn’t that costly.” Foster Freiss, the
biggest financial backer of For example, the
National Organization for Women Everyone then seems to
jump on the anti-Santorum bandwagon; The real objection is
to the outrageous idea that - - - - - I R E L A N D - - - - - Quote: “Life begins around the time of natural birth.” Leading pro-“choice”
advocate Sinead Ahern, Glad that's been cleared up then. While collecting their dole, downtrodden
unemployed women Nevertheless, it is disgraceful that young
women
Quote: “As far as [I am] concerned, it was my first cruise and my last!” Irishman Séamus Moore
after he and his wife Carol - - - - - R U G B Y - - - - - Quote: “I don't think we've met before, but I'm the referee not you ... This is not soccer.” International rugby
referee Nigel Owens berates Treviso's Tobias Botes The difference with soccer refereeing is stark. So we can await howls from the world of soccer.
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| See the Archive and Blogroll at top left and right, for your convenience |
Now, for a little [Light Relief]
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Gift Idea |
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Good to report that as at
FREED AT LAST, |
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BLOGROLL
Atlantic Blog (defunct) Blog-Irish (defunct)
Jihad
Religion
Iona Institute
Leisure
Blog Directory
My Columns in the
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What I've recently
But it's not
entirely honest in its subtle pro-Palestinian bias, and therefore needs
to be read in conjunction with an antidote, such as See detailed review +++++
BP's ambitious CEO John Browne expanded BP through adventurous acquisitions, aggressive offshore exploration, and relentless cost-reduction that trumped everything else, even safety and long-term technical sustainability. Thus mistakes accumulated, leading to terrifying and deadly accidents in refineries, pipelines and offshore operations, and business disaster in Russia. The Macondo blowout was but an inevitable outcome of a BP culture that had become poisonous and incompetent. However the book is gravely compromised by a litany of over 40 technical and stupid errors that display the author's ignorance and carelessness. It would be better to wait for the second (properly edited) edition before buying. As for BP, only a wholesale rebuilding of a new, professional, ethical culture will prevent further such tragedies and the eventual destruction of a once mighty corporation with a long and generally honourable history. Note: I wrote
my own reports on Macondo +++++
A horrific account of:
More details on my blog here. +++++
After recounting a childhood of convention and simple pleasures in working-class Aberdeen, Mr Urquhart is conscripted within days of Chamberlain declaring war on Germany in 1939. From then until the Japanese are deservedly nuked into surrendering six years later, Mr Urquhart’s tale is one of first discomfort but then following the fall of Singapore of ever-increasing, unmitigated horror. After a wretched journey Eastward, he finds himself part of Singapore’s big but useless garrison. Taken prisoner when Singapore falls in 1941, he is, successively,
Chronically ill, distraught and traumatised on return to Aberdeen yet disdained by the British Army, he slowly reconstructs a life. Only in his late 80s is he able finally to recount his dreadful experiences in this unputdownable book. There are very few first-person eye-witness accounts of the the horrors of Japanese brutality during WW2. As such this book is an invaluable historical document. +++++
This is a rattling good tale of the web of corruption within which the American president and his cronies operate. It's written by blogger Michele Malkin who, because she's both a woman and half-Asian, is curiously immune to the charges of racism and sexism this book would provoke if written by a typical Republican WASP. With 75 page of notes to back up - in best blogger tradition - every shocking and in most cases money-grubbing allegation, she excoriates one Obama crony after another, starting with the incumbent himself and his equally tricky wife. Joe Biden, Rahm Emmanuel, Valerie Jarett, Tim Geithner, Lawrence Summers, Steven Rattner, both Clintons, Chris Dodd: they all star as crooks in this venomous but credible book. ACORN, Mr Obama's favourite community organising outfit, is also exposed for the crooked vote-rigging machine it is. +++++
It is really just a collation of amusing little tales about surprising human (and occasionally animal) behaviour and situations. For example:
The book has no real message other than don't be surprised how humans sometimes behave and try to look for simple rather than complex solutions. And with a final anecdote (monkeys, cash and sex), the book suddenly just stops dead in its tracks. Weird. ++++++
It's chapters are organised around provocative questions such as
It's central thesis is that economic development continues to be impeded in different countries for different historical reasons, even when the original rationale for those impediments no longer obtains. For instance:
The author writes in a very chatty, light-hearted matter which makes the book easy to digest. However it would benefit from a few charts to illustrate some of the many quantitative points put forward, as well as sub-chaptering every few pages to provide natural break-points for the reader. +++++
The author was a member of Britain's V Force, a forerunner of the SAS. Its remit was to harass Japanese lines of command, patrol their occupied territory, carryout sabotage and provide intelligence, with the overall objective of keeping the enemy out of India. Irwin is admirably yet brutally frank, in his descriptions of deathly battles with the Japs, his execution of a prisoner, dodging falling bags of rice dropped by the RAF, or collapsing in floods of tears through accumulated stress, fear and loneliness. He also provides some fascinating insights into the mentality of Japanese soldiery and why it failed against the flexibility and devolved authority of the British. The book amounts to a very human and exhilarating tale. Oh, and Irwin describes the death in 1943 of his colleague my uncle, Major PF Brennan. +++++ Other books here |
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After
48
crackling, compelling, captivating games, the new World Champions are,
deservedly,
England get the Silver,
No-one can argue with
Over the competition, |
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